🔴 Will The Hong Kong Protests Result In Civil War? (w/ TL Tsim) | Real Vision Classics

TL Tsim: In the West, you’re used to a lot of mass media information. In the case of China, although.


TL Tsim: In the West, you’re used to a lot
of mass media information. In the case of China, although the economic
data is now readily available, the political machinations behind the scenes is something
else. I’m TL Tsim. I’m a political analyst. And my company is called TL Tsim and Associates
Limited. My background is very mixed. My first job was with the BBC External Service
in the Chinese section. We broadcast radio programs primarily for
a Chinese audience in the Far East. And then I became an administrator at the
Chinese University of Hong Kong. And then I started writing for the South China
Morning Post and the Hong Kong Economic Journal. For the Post, I wrote in English. For the Journal, I wrote in Chinese. So I started up my– well, if you could call
it a career– doing political analysis for the mass media. And then, in 1994, I started my own company
called TL Tsim and Associates. In the 1980s, just as China was opening up,
I had the great opportunity to be working for a man who was then the leading financial
guru in Hong Kong, a man called Fung King Hey. And with him, we went into China to talk about
projects, investments, and the opening up of the market and so on. And in the course of those few years, I got
to see a lot in China. And that got me interested in starting to
concentrate on the Chinese political scene. Well, the Hong Kong people’s relationship
with the motherland, the sovereign power China, is, I would say, very mixed, because on the
one hand, everybody can see the economic benefits. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, for instance,
would not be where it is without the Chinese money coming in. Hong Kong’s property market would not be where
it is without the Chinese investments. And the entrepot trade, import-export trade,
the tourism– we are very dependent on China now. We have been for the last 20 years. But then the political dimension is something
else, because people in Hong Kong want to keep their way of life. And their way of life is very different from
the way of life which is in China today. For instance, we have free access to the internet,
Google. We have press freedom. We have the rule of law. We are not subject to authoritarian diktats’
instructions. We enjoy these freedoms. We always have. And we would like to keep them as they are. So there is starting to be now a lot of trepidation
about what might happen in the year 2047 because the Sino-British Joint Declaration between
Britain and China only covers 50 years from 1997. And 20 of those 50 years are now behind us. And looking forward, you’ve got a problem
with mortgages. 30-year mortgages are the norm. You’ve got a problem with the laws. The laws of Hong Kong are essentially English
laws– common law tradition, British-trained barristers, lawyers, judges, and so on, and
so forth. If, in the year 2047, we have an abrupt change
and we close the chapter on all that and we switch to Chinese laws, Chinese judges, Chinese
lawyers, that would create a real problem. So we are now in the process of looking at
this seriously. And therefore, this has created the kind of
unsettled, restless feeling among, especially, the young people of Hong Kong. Now if you believe in the polls that universities
and other organizations in Hong Kong conduct periodically, you would probably know that
the level of support among young people for the current chief executive of Hong Kong,
who is very pro-Beijing, is 4%. He has a support rate of 4% among young people. 96% of the youth in Hong Kong are against
Mr. Leung staying on. This is a very damning conclusion for people
to have reached. They probably did not realize that the problem
would arrive so soon– 30 years before the year 2047. I think they were probably caught unaware. And I think they appointed the wrong person
to be in charge at this particular moment in time, because he rather stoked the fire
and hatched the problem, as it were, when it could have laid dormant for a few more
years. Now, the problem having surfaced, Beijing
would have to deal with it. And of course, as you put it, there is the
possibility of what I call the sledgehammer approach. And the other alternative, which is the softly,
softly approach. At this point in time, we don’t know which
way it’s going to go. Of course, we’re hoping that Beijing would
talk, communicate, have a dialogue with the young politicians of Hong Kong and the not
so young politicians of Hong Kong so that something which is supported by the community
will eventually emerge. The economic situation is, until very recently,
until the Lehman Brothers debacle, China’s economy had been going very well. It averaged 9.6% GDP growth a year over the
last 25 years or 30 years. And with that sort of growth, of course, some
of that wealth would be filtering down. And if you go into any Chinese city today,
you will notice a huge difference between China now and China as it then was 30 years
ago. People’s standard of living has improved. A lot of Chinese people can now travel outside
of China and see the world, buy beautiful consumer goods. But since 2008, that
economy has been gradually losing momentum. It’s now, if you believe in official statistics,
6.7% GDP growth. That still makes China the fastest growing
economy of any size in the world today. And so it is not really a problem that China
cannot deal with. Chinese officials have said again and again
that they have the tools. They have a toolbox with a lot of possibilities
to deal with the problems at hand. So that does not really worry me. What we are looking at is, capital flight
is something that concerns a lot of people in the investment world. But when you look at it, you have to understand
that a lot of that has to do with the fact that the borrowing in US dollars had to be
repaid. If a company has taken out US dollar loans,
and if the US dollar is as strong as it is and the expectation of the RMB is that it
will go down further, of course you would want to convert now and repay your loans. So that is one reason why the RMB has been
weak and why there is capital flight out of China. The other reason is this anti-corruption campaign. It’s scared the wits out of a lot of people. And so when the opportunity is there, a lot
of the money has been coming out. I’m not saying all of it is corrupt money. I’m sure it is not. But when a country is in that sort of situation,
the smart money will want out. The third reason for capital flight is because
you have a government in Beijing now which is actually encouraging, actively promoting,
encouraging outward investment. They’re buying up the Astoria. They are investing in a lot of companies in
Europe. I don’t even have to name them. And when you do that sort of investment–
and this is all official and lawful, legal, and so on– money will be coming out of China. So for the first time, I think, last year,
foreign direct investments going into China and China outward-bound investments– leaving
China to invest in different parts of the world– they are roughly about equal. In fact, more money has been coming out than
going in. I can only quote you what Premier Li Keqiang
said. He said– and these are his exact words- – “China
will not start a currency war.” Notice he didn’t say China would not participate
in one. So if you’re a Chinese official, you must
be watching the yen, the yuan, and other currencies which will have an effect on China. And that is where we are at now. I think the G20 meetings will probably have
discussed this. I think the consensus is we shouldn’t have
a currency war because this is no good for anybody. And the Chinese will go along with that. But if you have a reversal of the trade surplus,
for instance– if you are exporting less and importing more– at some point, of course,
the RMB will go down and will continue to go down. Then you have the official from the PBOC,
the People’s Bank of China, saying the basis, in the long-term, for a continuing devaluation
of the RMB does not exist. Again, notice he said, “in the long-term.” So in the short-term, I think we’re looking
at continuing weakness of the Chinese currency. I think even Chinese people, like myself,
who just read Chinese history books and don’t really care about what happens in other parts
of the world, have probably come to the same mistaken conclusion that I did that Chinese
dynasties are super stable structures. They last a long time. And that in between two long Chinese dynasties,
you have a short period of civil war. Well, I’m sorry to disappoint my Chinese friends
and students. But this is really not the case. If you talk about the length of these dynasties,
I don’t think any of them lasted longer than the Habsburgs in Austria, who ruled for over
800 years. Chinese dynasties– the last one, called the
Qing dynasty, started in 1644 and ended in 1911. So let’s say 260 years. That’s not long compared to the Habsburgs. And the second surprise is the civil war period
in between two dynasties can be very long. It can be over 100 years, 150 years, and so
on. In fact, some people might argue that even
today, Taiwan is still outside of the Chinese orbit. It is governed by the DPP. It is not yet de facto a part of China. So that is something most Chinese people do
not understand. And it has a bearing on the way we go forward. And it is this. In spite of all of the intelligence, the learning,
and the experience of the Chinese people over 5,000 years, they have not come up with a
system of government which can deal with the effective and peaceful transfer of power. In the West, you do it through the ballot
box. So Brexit is Brexit. You accept it. But in China, the fight goes on. And eventually– eventually dynasties fall
for one of two major reasons. One, a popular uprising. Two, a fight among the generals. So it’s a coup d’etat scenario or the Spartacus
scenario. I call it Spartacus and Brutus. And that is no good for the country. My nightmare is not waking up on a Monday
morning and being told by my assistant that there was a coup d’etat in Turkey. My nightmare, because I live in Hong Kong,
is that I get told on a Monday morning that there had been a coup d’etat in Beijing and
that it was not conclusive and the two sides are fighting it out. That is my worst nightmare. I’m not concerned about popular uprisings,
although there are about 10,000 cases of peasants throwing stones at public security officers
and strikes and people gathering at traffic accidents, and then this erupted into social
disturbance. There are a lot of those incidents. Why am I not concerned? Well, first of all, the country’s gone from
300 US dollars per capita GDP to now about $7,000, or whatever it is. So it’s become very rich. The standard of living has improved. We went through all that. But more importantly, these are isolated,
localized individual incidents. It’s very easy to control these. You have 3,000 people gathering outside a
police station for two, three days. What does it matter in a country with 1.4
trillion people and spread over 9.6 million square kilometers of land? It’s peanuts. It’s not consequential. But what really concerns me and the Chinese
leaders as well– because they did study the breakup of the former Soviet Union. They went to great lengths to understand why
that happened. And they reached the same conclusion as I
did. The problem was internal. The problem arose out of disagreements within
the center of the party itself. And this is what they need to guard against. This is why you’ve seen the arrest of Bo Xilai,
the arrest of Zhou Yongkang, who was the former security czar, a member of the Politburo Standing
Committee. Then you have the arrests of the two generals,
General Xu and General Guo. Those are the players that could have toppled
a government because they are strong. They have the backing of armed forces behind
them. It’s not an incident in Guangzhou over the
sale of land or over the construction of a water treatment plant, or chemical, and so
on and so forth. Those things will not topple this government. We are in the age of nuclear warfare. Peasant uprisings are a thing of the past. The shortest dynasty of any size and power
in Chinese history was the Yuan dynasty. I think they lasted just less than 100 years. This government, this administration, the
Chinese Communist Party, came to power in 1949. And so it’s been around for 67 years. We don’t know when something like the Russian
collapse, the implosion of the former Soviet Union might take place. We don’t know whether this is going to be
the Yugoslavian model, when the country broke up into 6 or 7 parts. So to speculate on the timing of it is something
I do not do. I have no handle on this at all. I would be the first to admit I don’t know
it. But I don’t think anybody else knows it either. But it is not idle to speculate on the how–
how this is going to happen. The most likely scenario is a power struggle
over-spilling into a coup d’etat and then over-spilling into civil war. That would be the trajectory. And when that happens, I would say this. I don’t think, in Chinese history, you can
find an example of the Russian model of break-up. You know, when Gorbachev simply accepted the
fact– or Yeltsin– that Russia will be Russia, Ukraine will be Ukraine. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, all those will
be breaking away, and all these “stans” in the Middle East, and so on. That peaceful disintegration of what was the
former USSR is very, very unlikely to happen in China because they will fight. They would not have sat down and talked about
it and then take the decision to simply allow this to happen. This is not the Chinese model. And sadly, I think we’re not going to see
a Yugoslavian model either, because there they did have a civil war. But the civil war– the war was small, in
terms of size and scale, and didn’t last very long. That is not the Chinese model either. The Chinese model is a bitter, long-standing
civil war– very destructive, very divisive. This is the real black swan.

100 thoughts on “🔴 Will The Hong Kong Protests Result In Civil War? (w/ TL Tsim) | Real Vision Classics”

  1. The problem is the mask which these lawless extremist hide behind .. take away the masks and they will be nothing

  2. Cant have A civil war if the people have no weapons.. Freedom is only a privilege that can be taken away if you can not defend it.. There is no 2nd Amendment In Taiwan and HK.. So the writing is on the wall.. They are subject to Tyrants.. For many reasons its best the US totally Decouples..

  3. The protest is now fed on anger and it spreads through fear. It makes monsters out of men and women of Hong Kong until every ordinary people is broken. This city will soon be over.

  4. You want Freedom and a Democratic way of life people of HongKong? Then your going to have to fight for it!!! The Mainland Chinese government isnt going to let you have this. The longer you wait the stronger the Communist Government will have control on your basic freedoms.

  5. Former Soviet Union never experienced the prosperity and growth that China has seen, and Chinese being Chinese, they tend to be pragmatic and reluctant to fight if they have too much to lose. So if the tension among factions within the party becomes too great (to the point before the break out of a major war), I think they will just work out a power sharing deal, perhaps taking on the model of a republic (at least a quasi one) with multiple “parties” to divide and share the wealth and power bases. Civil war would not be a logical outcome necessarily.

  6. The US democracy one man one vote is ONLY 70 years. We can't make a comparison. Wait the consequences of trade war. America will also know it's colour revolution.

  7. I think China is prepared for world war also Americans and Russia. But most people rich and poor,old and young they want to stay alive. Threatening does not work

  8. The higher the GDP growth the more sudden the crash……economy should run at 3% not 7% annual GDP growth because the "spoon size" they are using the feed that beast will eventually be the size of a "teaspoon" and that is going to make the beast growl very much…..

  9. 对中国耒看,香港只不过是有如人身上的一粒鼻屎,那能影响到内地 ,简直是废话连篇

  10. All developed countries , Please put A New '' Hong Kong Human Rights Tax " on CCP head until it give HONG KONGER referendum and stop interference with The New West Berlin. “Red Enterprises” keep funding CCP and police , Our kids are dying…. Crying😫

  11. This man is brilliant ,analyzed the protest in Hong Kong now and the Future HK 2047. I'm enjoy this "lectures "

  12. HK people love to work hard all their life and finally can afford an apartment smaller than most of yours bath room.

    Let them be this way, because they have freedom!!!!!

  13. Hk should start fitting in China system ..starting from education,patriotism ,understanding the Chinese law ,Chinese living etc …hk have 30 years to do so ..yet they are now trying to avoid by giving tons of excuses and hope China will maintain 2 system ruling ..change the British style political system starting today and try adapt to China base political system…

  14. No. There will be no civil war.The Hong Kong rioters have lost their support from people because of their violence and the destruction they have done. They are down to only a few thousands the most. They sent 20-30 people to each targeted area to make damages at the same time so it looks like a lot of them. People now knows the true color of these gangs and their anti-government leaders. They also know the riot is funded by foreign money aimed to intimidate China to get involved. China of course would not fall into their trap. Now many people understand the whole thing is a planned drama.

  15. Any politician in his or her right mind should now realise that implementation of Mandarin educational system must be a lot sooner than 2047 in view of current unrest.

  16. Contrary to Mr Tsim's statement, the shortest dynasty in Chinese history was the Qing dynasty which last 14 years due to brutality of the emperor. My distance cousin, Xiang Yu, burned Qingshihuang Palace to the ground. Yuan dynasty (Mongols') didn't last as long again due to brutal rule. My direct ancestors controlled the Song dynasty army but lost to them despite help from Moslems (now 'Hui' community) from Middle East.

  17. A very convincing China expert who thinks that there are 1.4 trillion Chinese people, spreading sino-phobia casually.
    And if peasants uprising is for the past, why China still has a trajectory towards civil war?
    The answer: because some people would love to see that happen and dreams about it everyday so it must be possible.

  18. It's ridiculous that he compared the all out riots in the past 3 and a half month in HK as just some localized peasants disturbances. It was an all out anarchy; the rioters disrupted peace and order by arson, ranksacking, beating up innocent bystanders………… He prefers to predict the breakup and possibly a civil war of China. His fearmongering tactic is baseless .

  19. The fact that the Hong Kong people are masked is to purify all Hong Kong people as evidence that they do not ask questions in China's surveillance society, and they can cleanse the ethnicity = massacre

  20. What I love about people with deep insight and understanding, is that what they say is valid for a long time. This interview was done three years ago and yet all of what this man says is still quite relevant now, at height of HK protests.

  21. China is a paper tiger. China didnt invade Taiwan, didnt send troop to HK, didnt go to war with India. China is probably not confident with their Russian copied hardware.

  22. He points out the real problem. The real problem is 2047. Young people wants to solve the problem now, but it is not problem. It is a long-term issue which cannot be solved by just violent protests

  23. one thing china lose badly to the west is the public relation in media and black propaganda, the USA succeed in bad mouthing, brainwashing people of the world that china is evil and american is the angel. the best judge is you to visit china and see for yourself. they are so obssess about democracy and force everybody to embrace it, most democratic country elect politician who only serve for their own personal interest and for the people.we should respect each other culture and believes and most importantly we should not meddle in other people business as much as we dont like somenody meddling in our own business too.

  24. u know what? YES it will be a civil war, but it would be solely between "those law abiding citizens" and "these criminal mobs", since the judges in HK are not doing their jobs to put there criminal mobs behind bars but to release them back in to the society… soon those silence law abiding citizens would raise up and protect themselves against these mob. We are human beings too, we have a voice too, just becuase we do not agree with these mobs, that does not give these mob the rights to beat us up and steal from us, bullying us …solely based on different opinions

  25. 竺可桢先生《中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究》。Everybody who studies Chinese history should read this first.

  26. The guy is a Brit sympathizer. During colonial days, he meant something. He he's not. He's been saying all these for the past 20 years

  27. Hong Kong is a part of China. If you don’t like it. Feel free to leave and go live anywhere else, US if you wish. No ones stops you doing so. But do not disturb other people’s life, destroy local business.

  28. This gentleman does not understand the butterfly effect! A girl killed in Taiwan caused the NBA ban in the mainland. A ping pong game in Beijing makes China becoming a world superpower. Every small thing does matter.

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  30. Qin dynasty is the shortest in China, only last 14 to almost 15 years.

    Yuan last 97 years.

    BTW Zhou dynasty last about 700+ to almost 800 years.

  31. I wish the Hong Kong Protest dissolve the That detestable Tumor upon the back of the Chinese people called the "CCP".

  32. This is not in 2019 or not in Lam time.
    On hind side now there is no dialogue possible with most foul mouthed Hongkies as their minds are already highjacked by bias education

  33. The shortest dynasty in China was Northern and Southern era. May be more shorter the Qin who was the founding of the ancient China.
    You guy even looks like Chinese but fail in your own historical nation. How can you give a comment on China. By viewing that you are financial figure who do hiding or laundry money for some corrupt Chinese there.

  34. In the end it will come down to economic reality and China is the economic global future. The US like Europe is a has been nation, lost in trying to hold on to the American 20th century. The 21st global century belongs to China, so Taiwan and Hong Kong will swing to China just because that’s their economic future. And people value their economic well-being over political philosophies.
    The US is destined for a Soviet Union type collapse. The dollar will be globally dumped and will crash America similar to the Soviet Union crash and collapse 30 years ago

  35. Never seen such an insightful interview
    I have studied some Chinese history as well and I do have to agree with what he is saying
    Amazing intelligent man

  36. No wonder this guy used to work for BBC another fake news broadcast station he didn’t know what the Hells going on with that Former Soviet UNION’s fall as they can handle economic fall Half to be washed to follow the Westin system anyway this guy is a typical banana also yellow and inside white most the trailer it’s like that

  37. What are you trying to say about corruption campaign? And about Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, what did you try to imply? Wasted time!

  38. Civil war? This American plot has only exposed their real face to 1.4 billion Chinese people. Condemnation of the terrorist violence has been near unanimous. We are more united than ever. Nice try, uncle Sam, but your evil plan has backfired bigly!

  39. This man is a stable, wise and decent person who looks at history with farsighted perspective.

    Naturally, he isn’t in a position of political power. What a shame.

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  41. I am not really convinced by most of his arguments. It is typical for people from Hong Kong to overvalue their city and undervalue the mainland.

  42. I think he made some mistakes about the stock market, in which the China enterprises have grasped more benefits from HK, rather than the reverse.

  43. In the west our media lies to us tells us what they want us to hear they have a thing for making the public fear anyone remember that Y2k BS

  44. Keep dreaming. Hong Kong will stabilize and those responsible for all the violent riots will be sent to jail. Toodles!

  45. On my shelf of The Shortest Books Ever Written, I have 'Chinese Management Techniques'. With the Chinese, out of chaos a rule emerges. China is an Empire, historically in flux. The Cantonese and the Mandarin do not even speak the same language despite a shared text. The USSR was a concoction brewed in Yalta, I believe, and every imperialist government demands a sphere of influence. The USA has claimed the Western Hemisphere for two-hundred years.

  46. "what do we care about 3,000 people protesting infront of a police station" that is a very different number from the 2 million reported elsewhere. 2 million is small compared to the general whole. but 2/7 of hong kong is huge.

  47. This guy has an outdated view and represent the older generations. He is not the only one who knows both Chinese and European history. In fact , he has no idea of what’s going on with the younger generations of Chinese.

  48. 30k peasant uprising can turn to a few hundred thousand to over a million with the right message and mix of leaders.

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